How it works
Better decisions. With receipts.
How a decision runs in Midfire, from the question to the look-back, and what it asks of each person along the way.
01 · The room
Get the right people into the decision, not into a meeting.
The decision maker asks the people whose read matters about the specific conditions that decide it. Each of them answers on their own, from an email, in a couple of minutes.
- Everyone answers before seeing anyone else's view
- In a meeting, the shared screen shows the condition and the counts, never names
Midfire
Your view
Run a second assembly shift from October to bring lead time back to 18 weeks
Meg Hartwell asked for your view on this decision in progress.
What is needed
• Weigh in on 2 conditionsAbout a minuteHoping to decide by Friday 21 August
Your name and the time go on the record with whatever you say.
Asked by Meg HartwellCondition 1 of 2
The 18% premium plus cover costs about £90,000 a year and keeps machine margin above 46%
You · Where do you stand?
Nobody else's answer is on this screen. They open to you once yours is in.
Who's involved
- Elaine WhitfieldFinance Director2 conditions (c4, c5)Answered both
- Stuart BellOperations Director3 conditions (c1, c2, c3)Answered 1 of 3
- Tomasz ZielińskiHead of EngineeringPremortemTwo causes given
- Gareth LlewellynField service1 condition (c7)Not yet
Meeting viewCondition 2 of 7
Eight experienced fitters can be hired in Redditch at the 18% premium by the end of September
02 · The decision
Decide with the evidence in view. Act on the gaps.
Midfire drafts what would have to be true for each path to work, and what must not fail. You see every condition with what people said and the documents checked against it, and you make the call on each one.
- Every path is examined, keeping things as they are included
- Before you commit, the strongest case against your path gets a hearing
- You stay the judge: the analysis is drafted for you, the call is yours
How each condition has been ruled
| No call yetNothing has been decided about this condition yet. A decisive one here is what the commit will ask about. | Risk acceptedIt may not hold; we proceed knowingly. The reason goes on the record. A decisive one here is a load-bearing condition we are knowingly proceeding without. | MetThe decision treats this condition as satisfied. | Not applicableThis condition does not bear here. The reason goes on the record. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| decisive | ||||
| material | ||||
| minor |
Condition overview7 conditions · criticality × the call
| No call yetNothing has been decided about this condition yet. A decisive one here is what the commit will ask about. | Risk acceptedIt may not hold; we proceed knowingly. The reason goes on the record. A decisive one here is a load-bearing condition we are knowingly proceeding without. | MetThe decision treats this condition as satisfied. | Not applicableThis condition does not bear here. The reason goes on the record. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| decisive | ||||
| material | ||||
| minor |
Every chip is a claim the path rests on, placed by how much it matters and the call made on it. Tap one to open it.
c5Must be true · material
The extra output is sold at list: the book absorbs faster delivery without discounting
Where everyone stands
Elaine Whitfield It holds
The book is 7.1 months, with two 24-week contracts inside it. Faster delivery is sold before it is built.
David Okafor At risk
Sized against today's book. If the Chicago contract lands, twelve more machines arrive on top of it.
What is your call?
The hearing · the case against this path
Undersized on the day the Chicago contract is signed
The shift is sized to today's book. Twelve more machines a year would put the standard quote back past 22 weeks within a quarter.
The ruling
The call
A second assembly shift on bay 2 from 5 October, nine fitters, no new bay
The strongest alternative
The June package: a second machining shift and a third assembly bay, five months
Which trade-off determines your choice?
The package adds more capacity, but it takes five months and £420,000. The shift brings the lead time back to 18 weeks before the autumn launches are quoted.
You proceeded, with no attack left standing, on the record
03 · Learn from past decisions
The decision keeps working.
The committed call becomes a record the company can read. Its review dates come back by email, each review checks the tripwires, and the look-back judges the call and the outcome as two questions.
- Predictions are sealed with a probability at the moment you commit
- A good call with a bad outcome is recorded as exactly that
- Your company's confidence becomes a number it can improve
Committed · sealed 21 Aug
Standard lead time quoted at 18 weeks by 31 March 2027
Scored against what happened, at the reviewTripwires
- Fewer than six fitter offers accepted by 18 September: the start moves to November
- Any late-turn build fails final inspection: the shift stops until engineering signs off
Guarantee 18-week delivery on Q1 orders, capped at ten slots
- said 50%Ten slots subscribed at list priceit happened
- said 70%90% of guaranteed orders ship within 18 weeksit didn't
A delivery guarantee is a bet on the slowest constraint in the building. Sequence the fixtures before you sell the promise.
Confidence vs reality
When you say 70%, it happens 58% of the time. That's 12 points too confident, across 14 forecasts.
Quality × outcome
title: Run a second assembly shift from October to bring lead time back to 18 weeks
decided: 2026-08-21
prediction: 70% · lead time quoted at 18 weeks by 2027-03-31
tripwires: 2, checked at every review
conditions: 7, with the call, the reason and the receipts
people: who was asked, and what each said
Every decision exports as plain files whenever you ask: the frame, the paths, the conditions and their receipts, the calls, the predictions. Nothing about the record depends on staying a customer.
04 · Communicate the decision
Tell the company what was decided, and why.
Every decision has one card: the call, why it was made, and when it comes back for review. Once you commit, publish it as a brief to the whole company, to one folder or to named people.
- The same card in the inbox and in every collection
- What each person said stays in the full record, never in the brief
- Present the published decisions at a town hall, one per screen
Publish decision brief
A frozen brief for the organization. Contributor notes, the hearing and evidence receipts stay in the full record.
The brief
Run a second assembly shift from October to bring lead time back to 18 weeks
The call: a second assembly shift on bay 2 from 5 October
Decision maker: Meg Hartwell · decided 21 Aug
Who reads it
everyone in the companythe Operations foldernamed peoplePublished v1Big bet
Run a second assembly shift from October to bring lead time back to 18 weeks
The call, as published
A second assembly shift on bay 2 from 5 October, nine fitters, no new bay
Why
Bring the standard lead time back to the 18-week target before the autumn cosmetics launches are quoted, without waiting five months and £420,000 for the full package.
As published on 24 Aug
Committed 21 Aug. Review checkpoints: 18 Sep, 4 Jan, 31 Mar.
Reconsider if: fewer than six fitter offers are accepted by 18 September
Present collection4 of 6
What we learned
Guarantee 18-week delivery on Q1 orders, capped at ten slots
The callGuarantee 18 weeks on orders signed by 27 March, capped at ten build slots
- Reviewed 6 Jul: the reasoning held up mostly; the outcome was worse than expected.
- Execution: mostly done.
- Lesson: a delivery guarantee is a bet on the slowest constraint in the building. Sequence the fixtures before you sell the promise.
Two depths
Most calls take minutes. The big bets get the full treatment.
Midfire suggests which kind a decision is from how costly it would be to get wrong and how hard it would be to undo. You choose.
Everyday calls
A vendor switch, a price tweak, a hire. Frame it, check the conditions that decide it, and commit, in a few minutes.
- The conditions that decide it, drafted for you
- A record anyone in the company can read later
- Add a prediction and the call comes back for a look-back
Big bets
A new market, a second shift, a price change for every customer. The calls that shape the company.
- Your team's independent read on the conditions that decide it
- A premortem, and a hearing for the strongest case against
- Sealed predictions, tripwires and a look-back on the date you set
Which decisions deserve a process? The guide on sorting decisions by what they cost has the research.
Bring your next big decision.
Bring a decision you have to make this month. We frame it with you and send your team its first questions. Or step into the demo first: three companies, real decisions, no signup.