The dice tax
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About half of organizational decisions fail.
Nutt, 400+ decisions²
“90% sure” managers are right about half the time.
Russo & Schoemaker³
Experts judging identical cases differed by a median 55%.
Kahneman et al.⁴
Deciding blind
40 people · per year · as most calls are made today
The cascade: teams executing the wrong things¹ ⁵
40 people × 21% drag¹ × 37% decision share⁵ × $70,000
~$220,000
Everyday calls that fail²
15/wk × 52 × $2,000 at stake × 44% × 50% lost
~$340,000
Big bets that fail²
1/mo × 12 × $50,000 at stake × 44% × 50% lost
~$130,000
Est. annual dice tax
~$690,000
With a structured process
40 people · per year · top-quartile discipline¹ ²
The cascade: teams executing the wrong things¹ ⁵
40 people × 13% drag¹ × 37% decision share⁵ × $70,000
~$130,000
Everyday calls that fail²
15/wk × 52 × $2,000 at stake × 30% × 50% lost
~$230,000
Big bets that fail²
1/mo × 12 × $50,000 at stake × 30% × 50% lost
~$90,000
Est. annual cost
~$460,000
The difference
~$230,000
a year¹ ²
Assumptions and sources
Fixed, because they're published: 21% of productive capacity lost to drag at the average company vs 13% at top-quartile organizations (Bain¹, both bills use Bain's own pair) · 44% failure on single-option calls vs 30% when real alternatives are weighed, derived from Nutt's published success rates (Nutt², 56% to 70%). Both pairs are published differences between cohorts, not measured effects of adopting any tool. Nutt tracked consequential organizational decisions; carrying his rates onto everyday calls is our extension, and every stake stays yours to edit. We round every output to two significant figures; eight digits of confidence would be its own bad decision.
Where these numbers come from
- ¹ Mankins & Garton (Bain), Time, Talent, Energy (HBR Press, 2017): The average company loses more than 20% of its productive capacity to organizational drag (index: average 21 points; top-quartile organizations 13). Both bills use Bain's own pair: 21% for the average company, 13% for the top quartile.
- ² Paul Nutt, Academy of Management Executive (1999) · Why Decisions Fail (2002): 400+ real decisions tracked over two decades: about half fail (not fully adopted within two years; a third never used at all). Managers weighed multiple options in under 20% of decisions; when they did, success rose from 56% to 70% (1999, p. 85). The bills use the derived failure pair: 44% single-option, 30% with real alternatives weighed.
- ³ Russo & Schoemaker, Sloan Management Review (1992): 2,000+ professionals asked for 90%-confident ranges: fewer than 1% were calibrated. “90% sure” captured the truth roughly half the time.
- ⁴ Kahneman, Rosenfield, Gandhi & Blaser, “Noise” (HBR, 2016) · Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein, Noise (2021): Underwriters at one insurer differed by a median 55% on identical cases; executives had expected about 10%.
- ⁵ Mankins & Steele, “Turning Great Strategy into Great Performance” (HBR, 2005): Companies deliver only 63% of the financial performance their strategies promise. Of the 37 points lost, the direction slice (poorly communicated strategy 5.2 + actions not clearly defined 4.5 + unclear accountabilities 4.1) is 13.8 points, about 37%: the share of drag this calculator counts as decision-attributable. Deliberately conservative; the other two thirds of drag are not billed here.
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